Metro Councilor Carlotta Collette discusses transportation strategies with other elected officials from Clackamas County at the April 11 Climate Smart Communities summit.
Leaders from across the region Friday seemed willing to invest more – perhaps significantly more – in transportation.
More buses. Smarter roads. Better sidewalks and bikeways. All gathered support from the morning gathering of dozens of elected officials.
That support isn't surprising. The leaders were spending on a currency of moral imperative, guided by a budget they've already laid out in policies that have been adopted from city councils and county commissions from across the region.
It's easy to say the public should do more about improving transportation, and implement the things already called for in plans. The harder conversation, about how to pay for it all, comes next month.
The meeting, with officials hailing from Forest Grove, Wilsonville, Happy Valley, Vancouver and myriad spots in between, was on its surface to address an impending state mandate to cut the Portland region's tailpipe emissions.
But the added benefits of doing so – possibly decreasing congestion, improving the climate for business or helping the region's residents live longer – drove the conversation far more than saving the planet.
Friday's meeting, at the World Forestry Center's Cheatham Hall, was a joint gathering of the Metro Council, the Joint Policy Advisory Committee on Transportation and the Metro Policy Advisory Committee. As part of the state mandate, Metro has to develop a plan to cut per capita tailpipe emissions by 20 percent in the next 20 years.
That plan is due to state regulators by the end of this year.
Laying out the options
According to Metro's analysis, there's an easy way to meet the state's tailpipe mandate: Implement the plans already on the books.
The problem is that best laid plans often go to waste, in large part because there isn't money to pay for them. Take transit as a simple example. The region's current plans – adopted by representatives from around the region – call for about 10 percent more bus service than is offered now.
Doing so would cost $1.9 billion in capital costs alone by 2035. The way TriMet funding is going, less than a third of that will be available in the next 20 years.
On the other hand, if the region increased its spending – up to $5.1 billion in capital on transit in the next 20 years – and doubled daily transit service, it could come closer to hitting the state's goals by making it significantly easier for people to get around without a car.
Overall, the region is on course to spend $6 billion in the next 20 years on all forms transportation – that's assuming the already-declining revenue stream continues its downward trend.
If that happens, the region is expected to see a 12 percent reduction in its tailpipe emissions in by 2035, short of the state's mandate.
That's also well short of what's called for in the region's current plans – the stuff local communities have called for. That list is $17 billion deep – and would lead to a 24 percent reduction, overall, in per capita emissions by 2035.
Metro staff also prepared a high-investment list, primarily because they felt it was likely policy makers would want to invest heavily in some areas and not-so-heavily in others. Those projects, ranging from completion of the region's bike and pedestrian network to timing every traffic signal in the region, would cost $31 billion and cut per capita emissions by 36 percent.
Public support
Before the MPAC and JPACT members gathered in small groups to discuss how they wanted to tackle the mandate, DHM Research principal Adam Davis laid out where the region's residents landed in a March poll on the topic.
In general, there was more support for improving transit and making traffic flow better, either by widening roads or using technology to decrease congestion.
Across the board, residents from Davis' survey said they'd be willing to pay more in taxes or fees to improve transportation, ranging from 83 percent to maintain the current transportation system to 57 percent for providing incentives for carpooling or using alternative transportation to get around.
Still, Davis said, selling a tax increase in the Portland region would be a tough sell. Negativity towards government is at an all-time high, and the public has very little awareness of how government works, particularly with regards to finance.
"Explain what the basics are, what the benefits are," Davis said. "You're going to have to give them some education as to how they're paying for it now. You're going to have to give them some education as to the need for money. You've got to also help them understand that you're doing a good job spending the money you already have."
Settling on a price
After hearing from Davis and other speakers, the JPACT and MPAC members at Friday's meeting gathered into small groups to talk about how they wanted to tackle the emissions challenge. Generally speaking, they wanted a plan that was slightly more ambitious than what was already in their plans, that $17 billion list.
On a scale of 0-7, with seven representing a willingness to go all-out in funding that course of action, the leaders most heavily supported using technology to decrease congestion. That option ranged in price from $113 million to $193 million in the next 35 years, easily the least expensive way to make a dent in per capita emissions.
"It seemed like inexpensive, effective and great bang for your buck," said Happy Valley Mayor Lori DeRemer.
Clackamas County Commissioner Paul Savas agreed. "We're all believers in technology. ITS (intelligent transportation systems), electric vehicles – the cost effectiveness is huge."
Finishing second in the polling was an increase in transit service, scoring a 4.9 out of 7.
"The story of using an hour and a half to get some place 30 minutes away is killing us," said Forest Grove Mayor Pete Truax. "We need to work on that, or lower our expectations."
Savas, reminding the meeting that his county is half suburban and half rural, stressed the importance of connecting the "spokes" of the region's suburban communities to each other, rather than focusing on the "hub" of downtown Portland.
"The hub-and-spoke model does not work with our disconnected communities that are on the spokes," he said. "If you look at where the employment is, we want to be able to get to the outside where the jobs are going."
A close third was increasing efficiency of parking, by using parking spaces wisely. According to Metro's report, it can cost $600 to $1,200 a year to maintain a parking spot, so being more selective about how much public parking is offered can save governments money.
Scoring a 4.3 out of 7 was funding for active transportation, with an even 4 representing a $948 million investment in bikeways, trails and sidewalks in the next 30 years. The region is on pace to spend $57 million on active transportation in the next 20 years.
"While it is true that it does increase the percentage fairly large," said Washington County Chair Andy Duyck, "it's a percentage of a small number to begin with."
Hillsboro Mayor Jerry Willey pointed out that improving active transportation is about more than just lanes and trails.
"We need to provide the opportunity for walking and biking and getting to work," Willey said, asking Metro active transportation guru Lake McTighe how far people are willing to bike to work. She said the average bike commute is three miles.
"One of the best ways we can do that (get people to bike to work) is to improve our zoning, so we can get people to work and live in the same area," Willey said.
Scoring last, both at 3.9 out of 7, were commuter information programs and improving roads.
The information programs, like marketing to residents about the best ways to get around, didn't gather a lot of discussion. While inexpensive at $99 million to $234 million, they didn't seem to resonate with the officials on hand.
Neither did an expansion of the road network. The representatives at the meeting didn't seem to be too interested in building out the highways in current plans, and adequately maintaining the region's roads. That would cost $8.8 billion in the next 20 years.
"Maintain what we have before we expand," said Lake Oswego Councilor Jeff Gudman. "That's not only for roads. That's bikeways, that's sidewalks. If we've got the capability to deliver 10 million bus miles per year, let's maintain that capability.
"If you can't maintain what we have, what is the point of expanding?" Gudman said.
Coming next month
With the MPAC, JPACT and Metro Council feedback in hand, Metro's planners can get down to details on crafting a final proposal for meeting the tailpipe mandate. They now have a clearer picture of what kind of package the representatives are looking for in a strategy to reduce emissions.
"We really need to be in the B category (funding current plans) or a little better in some regards," Willey said. "We need to do a little better than just meeting the criteria. We want to be above that. At the same time, we want municipalities and jurisdictions to have flexibility."
That B category, all told, is projected to cost $17 billion in the next 20 years.
The specifics for a funding strategy weren't discussed Friday – that's the topic for a May 30 follow-up summit, leaving leaders six weeks to ponder the $17 billion question they've been inching along on for three years – how to keep the Portland region moving, protect the environment, support the economy, and pay for it all.