Population and employment forecasts
Planning and conservation › Planning library › Population and employment forecasts
Learn more about forecasts that estimate a range of possible population and employment growth for the seven-county metropolitan region by the years 2030 and 2060. The forecasts help inform public discussions about the future of the region.
The Metro Council released updated 20- and 50-year population and employment forecasts in March 2009 to inform upcoming policy decisions and investments to support the health and sustainability of the region. Download the forecasts
The range forecasts serve two primary purposes. Oregon law requires Metro to complete an analysis of the capacity within the existing urban growth boundary to accommodate the forecast population and employment growth of the next 20 years. The current capacity analysis, known as the urban growth report, was completed in December 2009.
Learn more about the urban growth report
The 50-year forecasts informed a process to designate urban and rural reserves. Urban reserves will be areas outside of the current urban growth boundary that will be set aside to accommodate future population and employment growth over the next 40 to 50 years. Rural reserves will be areas outside of the urban growth boundary that will be off-limits to urbanization during the same period.
The Metro Council and the boards of commissioners of Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties reached agreements to designate urban and rural reserves in spring 2010. In October 2010 the Oregon Land Conservation and Development Commission approved the urban and rural reserves designated in Clackamas and Multnomah counties and asked the Metro Council and the Washington County Board of Commissioners to reconsider the urban and rural reserves proposed in Washington County. These 50-year forecasts will continue to serve the development of the new urban and rural reserves in Washington County, which should be completed in spring 2011.
Learn more about urban and rural reserves
The forecasts encompass the seven-county Portland-Beaverton-Vancouver Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area as defined by the federal Office of Management and Budget. That area includes all of Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, Yamhill and Columbia counties in Oregon and Clark and Skamania counties in Washington. The forecasts do not attempt to predict how many people and jobs will locate within portions of this area, such as the current Metro urban growth boundary.
The 20-year forecasts indicate that there is a 90 percent chance that the Statistical Area's population in 2030 will fall between 2.9 and 3.2 million people. For 2060, Metro projects a 90 percent probability that the population of the same area will be between 3.61 and 4.38 million people. As of the 2000 Census, the seven-county region's population was about 1.93 million.
The March 2009 forecasts also indicate a 90 percent chance that the total number of jobs in the Statistical Area will be between 1.25 and 1.7 million in 2030, and a 90 percent chance that there will be between 1.65 and 2.42 million jobs in 2060. The U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated 973,230 jobs in the seven-county Statistical Area in 2000.
Where the region’s population and employment numbers ultimately land will be determined by several factors, some of which are affected by global conditions while others will result from local and regional policy and investment choices. Varying conditions in the local and global economies, climate change and changing population and workforce demographics will have an impact on how much growth comes to this region. Policy decisions and investments made in local communities and across the region may also attract particular types of population and employment growth to areas throughout the region.
A copy of the full population and employment forecasts, as well as an executive summary, can be downloaded from the links below. There is also a separate page that answers some common questions about the population and employment forecasts.
Need assistance?
Ken Ray
503-797-1508 | 503-797-1799 fax
ken.ray@oregonmetro.gov
Download the forecast DOCUMENTS
Related Documents
- Regional population and employment range forecasts - executive summary - March 2009 678K Adobe Acrobat PDF | Published March 19, 2009
- Regional population and employment range forecasts - full report - April 2009 3.2M Adobe Acrobat PDF | Published April 16, 2009
To view PDF files, download free Adobe Reader. To translate PDF files into text to assist visually-impaired users, visit Access.Adobe.com.
To view MOV files, download free QuickTime.